2010: The Year We Make Contact (with the top of the Pac-10?)

I have posted the 2010 schedule on the main page, primarily to get rid of memories of 2009 as quickly as possible.

Keep in mind that the Pac-10 opener will be Oregon on September 25 -- this game was moved up from its original date so that both schools get a bye week in the middle of the season.

With 2009 wrapped up, the conference opener predictor worked again. Counting conference games only, since joining the Pac-10 in 1978, ASU has lost the conference opener 18 times, and in those seasons has gone a combined 59-77-2 (a 43% win percentage). However, in the 12 seasons in which we have won our first Pac-10 game, the composite record is 60-36-0 (a 63% win percentage). We tied our opener in 1983 and 1986 and finished a combined 9-4-2 in those seasons.

Since 1982, ASU has only once (in 1999) lost the conference opener and finished with a winning record in the Pac-10. Conversely, 2008 and 1994 were the only seasons where the Sun Devils won their conference opener but finished below .500 in the Pac-10.

Next season's home schedule is ugly, with five Pac-10 road games and our "A" out-of-conference game at Wisconsin. Remember, we are still looking for a replacement for the September 11 game at SDS.

Beat Oregon State and things will look bright

Updating my original research from last year, Oregon State is the most critical game of the 2009 season. Conference openers have historically been a strong predictor of the season.

Counting conference games only, since joining the Pac-10 in 1978, ASU has lost the conference opener 17 times, and in those seasons has gone a combined 57-70-2 (a 45% win percentage). However, in the 12 seasons in which we have won our first Pac-10 game, the composite record is 60-36-0 (a 63% win percentage). We tied our opener in 1983 and 1986 and finished a combined 9-4-2 in those seasons.

Since 1982, ASU has only once (in 1999) lost the conference opener and finished with a winning record in the Pac-10. Conversely, 2008 and 1994 were the only seasons where the Sun Devils won their conference opener but finished below .500 in the Pac-10.

This season's opener versus Oregon State is especially important because the  four following games are all winnable, so if we beat OSU a 4-1 Pac-10 start is perfectly realistic.

Ranking the Pac-10 Road Trips

I thought it would be interesting to start a discussion regarding which are the best (and worst) road trips in the Pac-10. Criteria include the city, the stadium, the gameday experience, etc.

Thanks to those of you who responded to my post on Cactus Ranch. Based on your feedback I have revised my original order slightly.

I am leaving au and Tucson out of this.

Full disclosure: I have been to 9 of the 10 schools (WSU is my only miss) and my trip to Stanford was prior to the stadium renovation.

My list:
1. Oregon -- best fans, unique stadium, relatively close to Portland
2. Cal -- I love the bay area; can travel by BART to the game
3. UCLA -- clearly superior to SC for an LA trip, IMHO
4. Washington -- great city/setting but stadium is surprisingly poor; track around the field means you are some distance from the action; take the ferry to the game for a unique experience
5. USC -- LA is fun but stadium is in rough neighborhood; good crowds since SC's re-emergence
6. Stanford -- was shocked how little there was to do near campus; new stadium is by all accounts very nice
7. Oregon State -- I literally walked past the stadium thinking it was a High School or JuCo stadium the first time I visited
8. Washington State -- haven't visited, but the hassle of getting there puts it last

Feel free to add your own comments; everyone has their personal favorites.

Updated 1/5/2009: Dan Zeiger published his ranking of Pac-10 stadiums in November '07. Keep in mind that he's ranking stadiums rather than road trips, so there will be some significant differences.

Kickoff times for the rest of the season -- Update #3

Updated 9/29/08: as predicted, the ASU @ USC game on October 11 has been selected by ABC for the 12:30pm timeslot. As with the Cal game this coming week, this will be a regional telecast. If you live outside the far West, you'll need to sign up for ESPN Gameplan ($22 for the day) or head to a sports bar.

The next game with a kickoff TBD is Oregon on October 25 at Sun Devil Stadium. Expect an announcement on October 13. The only open slot that day is the 12:30 ABC telecast, and the only other possibility for that time is UCLA at Cal, so the game this week in Berkley will probably have a major influence. If the Oregon game is not picked by ABC, expect a 7pm kickoff with no live TV coverage.

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Updated 9/22/08: the ASU @ Cal game has been picked up by ABC with a 12:30pm kickoff. This is a regional telecast, and given how poor the Pac-10 is doing this season you can be sure it will be shown in the Pac-10 region and maybe a few other western states only. For those of us outside that area, you'll need to sign up for ESPN Gameplan ($22 for the day) or head to a sports bar.

The USC game on October 11 is still TBD, with an announcement to be made on Monday, September 29 or Sunday October 5 if ABC uses one of its 6-day selections. ABC's other options that day are:
ARIZONA at STANFORD
UCLA at OREGON
WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE

This is a pretty sorry slate of games, so I think it's likely that ABC will select the ASU/USC game, but no guarantees!

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Numerous posts are starting to show up on various message boards asking when certain games will kickoff. Keep in mind that apart from a few games that are selected before the start of the season, most weeks' games are not selected for TV until 12 days prior to gameday. Twice per season, ABC is allowed to wait until 6 days to announce their picks.

Three invaluable resources are the full Pac-10 schedule, the Pac-10 TV schedule, and Matt Sarzyniak's excellent listing site.

The most important thing to keep in mind is that if you are planning to travel to a game, kickoff could be as early as 12:30pm or as late as 8pm, so keep your plans flexible. Typically if a home game is not selected for TV, it will kickoff at 7pm.

Here's what we already know about the 2008 season:

The first three games (NAU, Stanford and UNLV) were not selected for network TV and are being shown by FSN Arizona with a 7pm kickoff.

The Georgia game was selected by ABC prior to the start of the season with a 5pm kickoff.

The three big October matchups are all TBA:

The October 4 game at Cal is likely to be televised, and would kickoff at either 12:30pm on ABC or 4:30pm on Versus.

The October 11 contest at USC is also likely to be televised at either 12:30pm on ABC or 7:15pm on FSN. Remember, ABC cannot show USC every week (it just seems that way!).

The only open TV slot for the Oregon game on October 25 is 12:30pm on ABC, but UCLA @ Cal is also a candidate for that window. If the game is not picked by ABC, I assume ASU would schedule it for 7pm.

On November 1, the game at Oregon State is already set for 7:15pm on FSN.

Daylight savings time ends on Sunday, November 2.

If Washington keeps losing, the game in Seattle on November 8 is unlikely to be televised, because there is only one open slot that day, at 1:30pm on ABC. I think UW prefers daytime games so I would assume an early afternoon kickoff.

November 15 has two open timeslots: 1:30pm on ABC or 8:15pm on FSN. I would be surprised if ABC wanted to show Washington State so the early start is unlikely. Since this is the homecoming game, it's possible that kickoff will be late afternoon if not selected for TV, but unlike homecoming games in years past, this game is officially listed as TBA on the ASU website.

The UCLA game is already set for ESPN2 at 7:30pm on Friday, November 28 (the day after Thanksgiving).

The contest with Arizona in Tucson will be televised, but the kickoff could be 1pm or 6pm.

All eyes on Pac-10 officiating this weekend

Most people around the country will be watching USC host Ohio State this weekend. At the same time, ESPN will be televising Oklahoma's visit to UW. This will be the first time the Sooners have played at a Pac-10 stadium since the infamous Oregon officiating debacle.

Duck fans hate the Huskies. Trojans and Bruins don't get along. We despise the Rats. But one thing all Pac-10 fans can agree on is that our conference's officiating in terrible. I don't believe Pac-10 officials are biased, but I do believe they are incompetent.

In some ways, I hope that the Pac-10 officials do screw up a major call this weekend, because it may generate enough noise for change to happen. Of course, putting the words "change" and "Pac-10" in the same sentence is pretty funny.

Pac-10 falls even further behind

A must read column from Tony Barnhart of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Excerpt:

I was still getting calls late Monday night about the SEC’s staggering 15-year deal with ESPN that will reportedly pay the league about $2.25 billion. That deal, coupled with the 15-year deal the SEC has signed with CBS will give the league financial security for a long, long time.

In addition to the SEC, the Big Ten and Big XII have pretty impressive TV deals in place. Meanwhile, the silence from the Pac-10 office is deafening.

The most important game of the season is...

Forget UGA, forget U$C. One game stands out as the most critical on the Sun Devils' schedule: Stanford. That's right, the trees. Why? Because it's the Pac-10 opener, and this game has historically been a strong predictor of the season.

Consider these numbers (which count conference games only): since joining the Pac-10 in 1978, ASU has lost the conference opener 17 times, and in those seasons has gone a combined 57-70-2 (a 45% win percentage). However, in the 11 seasons in which we have won our first Pac-10 game, the composite record is 56-31-0 (a 64% win percentage). We tied our opener in 1983 and 1986 and finished a combined 9-4-2 in those seasons.

Since 1982, ASU has only once (in 1999) lost the conference opener and finished with a winning record in the Pac-10. Conversely, 1994 was the only season where the Sun Devils won their conference opener but finished below .500 in the Pac-10.

So feel free to overlook NAU, but don't overlook the Cardinal. September 6 in Sun Devil Stadium is the most important game of the season.

I thought he retired 10 years ago?

Probably the most significant offseason news, in terms of its long-term impact on ASU, was the announcement that Tom Hansen will retire as Pac-10 commissioner next summer (what, he has to hang on for another year?).

I'm surprised that the guys over at FireTomHansen.com didn't update their website in celebration. Let's face it: this guy was inept. Many people will claim that the lack of TV exposure is his biggest "crime"; personally I think his inability to secure a New Year's Day bowl for the second-placed team is the biggest indictment of his tenure.

Phil Knight as the next commissioner? Lisa Love? It really doesn't matter: whoever the Presidents select will be better than Hansen.

While blogs review his accomplishments (or lack thereof), other authors use the opportunity to re-open the discussion about Pac-10 expansion. This article makes the huge mistake of assuming that the Utah TV market is relevant. Let's be clear: Salt Lake City brings negligible additional viewers, and that is all that matters. The only schools that make sense for the conference to add are Texas, Texas A&M, Colorado or Missouri. And that will only happen if the Big XII breaks apart. Given their recent TV deal, however, that is unlikely to happen.

Sun Devil women's hoops team 3 point favorites over TBA today

As you will know from an earlier post, I am not a big fan of the ASU athletic department's website(s). It's a little like shooting fish in a barrel, but here's more evidence of why something needs to be done.

I don't follow the women's basketball team closely, but I am vaguely aware that the Pac-10 tournament is starting this weekend.

So to get details, I first go to the home page at TheSunDevils.com. I see an article about Aubree Johnson and Emily Westerberg being named to the All-conference team, but nothing about the tournament.

Next I go to the women's basketball page. As of 6:25 a.m. AZ time on Friday, March 2, the page has no mention of the Pac-10 tournament.

Assuming I was mistaken, I go next to the women's basketball schedule, where I am interested to see that on Friday, March 2, ASU will play TBA in the Pac-10 tournament. It is Friday, March 2.

I finally have to go to the Pac-10 website to find out that ASU got a bye, and will not be playing their first game until Saturday, where they will face the winner of today's UCLA vs. Washington State matchup.

Come on people! How do you expect people to be interested when you can't even bother to promote your star program properly? You've got the #7 team in the nation, and you can't even keep their schedule up-to-date?

Turkey day football at Sun Devil Stadium

Despite my earlier prediction that it may be several months before the Pac-10 schedule is finalized, the conference actually announced the 2007 lineup a full eight months in advance.

This rare display of proactive behavior from the conference office doesn't change my opinion that Tom Hansen needs to go, but it's nice to see the conference, and ASU in particular, get a prime timeslot on Thanksgiving evening.

The ASU press release makes a couple of dubious claims. First, it asserts that "ASU will enjoy a national stage alone on Thanksgiving evening at 6 p.m." which is true only if you count college football. There will be an NFL game starting at the exact same time, although I guess you could argue that the NFL Network isn't exactly on the national stage.

The second claim that caused me to raise an eyebrow is: "ASU asked for (and received) an evening kickoff time for that date so that fans could have the opportunity for a traditional Thanksgiving meal and then attend the game." Hmmmm, methinks that ESPN had no interest in starting the game at any time other than 8p.m. Eastern, in order to avoid competing with the NFL games on CBS and Fox.

Anyway, exaggerated claims aside, this is good news for the program. A national TV audience is never a bad thing, and it spreads out the last five games of the season. Let's just hope that ESPN doesn't unleash its dreaded Full Circle coverage on us.

It's also worth noting that Oregon's game at au was moved to Thursday, November 15 so the rats will have 16 days to prepare for their defeat at the hands of the good guys.

Success means beating USC, UCLA, Cal off the field

CFN, a publication I've never been able to fully endorse, has a respectable list of Top 30 players in the Pac-10 regardless of position.

ASU had two players make the list for this past season, Zach Miller and Ryan Torain. One has announced his NFL eligibility, while the other probably thought long and hard about it.

Meanwhile, USC, UCLA, and Cal racked up 19 of the top positions between them. The thin spread of premium talent doesn't appear to change much next year. Only Oregon State's Sammie Stroughter breaks the monopoly on those three schools stranglehold of Top 10 returning talent.

If you are a Pac-10 program wanting to challenge for top dog status, you have to beat those three schools in recruiting -- two of them in their own backyard. There's no other path. We've seen forays in Texas, Illinois, and the Midwest the past 20 years with very mixed results. Winning the battles in SoCal have produced two Rose Bowl teams. There's no alternative.

Possible changes to the 2007 football schedule

According to the Trib's ASU football notebook, the ASU/USC game at Sun Devil Stadium, currently scheduled for November 17, could be moved to Thanksgiving, pushing the au game back to December 1.

I'd be all in favor of this move. We already know that the last five weeks of the schedule are brutal (Cal, @Oregon, @UCLA, USC, au) so adding a bye week could only help. Plus, the TV exposure would be significant.

According to a few posts on various message boards, there is some confusion as to whether the proposal is to move the game to Thanksgiving Day itself, or to the Saturday following Thanksgiving. Either would be OK from my perspective.

Keep in mind that in 2007 Pac-10 games will be split between ABC, Fox Sports Net and ESPN, so expect the conference to move several games to non-traditional slots.

Typically the pre-season selections for TV games are announced in May/June, so it may be several months before anything is confirmed.